Bitcoin analysis
Bitcoin currently appears bearish because the statistical score is -3. The reading combines MACD momentum with RSI, Bollinger Bands and distance from the 50-day average; it suggests a market bias, not a certainty or investment advice.
Price trend
120-day close series with price references and hover details.
Peak and swing analysis
Significant pivots are detected when Bitcoin reverses by at least 5.0%. This helps separate normal noise from real drawdowns and rebounds.
Distance from recent peaks and lows
| Period | Peak | From peak | Low | From low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30d | 2026-09-18$81,342.66 | 0.00%0 days | 2026-08-20$73,025.15 | +11.39%29 days |
| 90d | 2026-09-18$81,342.66 | 0.00%0 days | 2026-06-30$58,624.71 | +38.75%80 days |
| 180d | 2026-05-10$82,138.93 | -0.97%131 days | 2026-06-30$58,624.71 | +38.75%80 days |
| 365d | 2025-10-06$124,752.53 | -34.80%347 days | 2026-06-30$58,624.71 | +38.75%80 days |
| 730d | 2025-10-06$124,752.53 | -34.80%347 days | 2026-06-30$58,624.71 | +38.75%80 days |
Recent significant swings
| From | To | Move | days | Speed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15$75,644.48 | 2026-09-18$81,342.66 | +7.53% | 3 | +2.51%/day |
| 2026-09-03$81,270.37 | 2026-09-15$75,644.48 | -6.92% | 12 | -0.58%/day |
| 2026-08-01$62,823.64 | 2026-09-03$81,270.37 | +29.36% | 33 | +0.89%/day |
| 2026-07-21$66,556.16 | 2026-08-01$62,823.64 | -5.61% | 11 | -0.51%/day |
| 2026-06-30$58,624.71 | 2026-07-21$66,556.16 | +13.53% | 21 | +0.64%/day |
| 2026-06-16$66,373.02 | 2026-06-30$58,624.71 | -11.67% | 14 | -0.83%/day |
| 2026-06-06$60,884.62 | 2026-06-16$66,373.02 | +9.01% | 10 | +0.90%/day |
| 2026-05-10$82,138.93 | 2026-06-06$60,884.62 | -25.88% | 27 | -0.96%/day |
Historical same-period behavior
Compares Bitcoin with the same calendar day, ISO week, month and year-to-date window in previous years. It is context, not a prediction.
| Window | Positive | Negative | Positive rate | Average | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Same calendar day12 prior samples | 7 | 5 | 58.3% | +0.80% | +13.20% | -7.10% |
| Same ISO week12 prior samples | 5 | 7 | 41.7% | -1.01% | +7.54% | -14.39% |
| Same month12 prior samples | 5 | 7 | 41.7% | -3.09% | +7.39% | -16.94% |
| YTD to same date12 prior samples | 8 | 4 | 66.7% | +53.17% | +321.85% | -58.07% |
Monthly returns by year
Each cell shows the Bitcoin return for that month. Green months closed higher; red months closed lower.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.16% | -14.79% | +1.83% | +11.83% | -3.57% | -20.33% | +7.27% | +24.95% | +3.51% | n/a | n/a | n/a | -7.05% |
| 2025 | +9.61% | -17.61% | -2.16% | +14.12% | +11.07% | +2.39% | +8.04% | -6.48% | +5.38% | -3.95% | -17.49% | -3.19% | -6.33% |
| 2024 | +0.72% | +43.76% | +16.62% | -15.00% | +11.35% | -7.13% | +3.10% | -8.75% | +7.39% | +10.86% | +37.36% | -3.14% | +120.98% |
| 2023 | +39.83% | +0.04% | +23.01% | +2.79% | -6.87% | +11.97% | -4.08% | -11.29% | +3.99% | +28.55% | +8.82% | +12.06% | +155.41% |
| 2022 | -16.90% | +12.24% | +5.43% | -17.21% | -15.70% | -37.77% | +17.74% | -14.08% | -3.09% | +5.48% | -16.23% | -3.61% | -64.27% |
| 2021 | +14.21% | +36.31% | +30.47% | -2.00% | -35.31% | -6.04% | +18.81% | +13.76% | -7.03% | +39.94% | -7.04% | -18.63% | +59.71% |
| 2020 | +29.96% | -7.99% | -25.13% | +34.51% | +9.09% | -3.44% | +23.81% | +3.16% | -7.66% | +27.66% | +42.41% | +47.71% | +303.09% |
| 2019 | -7.71% | +11.39% | +6.53% | +30.34% | +60.24% | +26.16% | -6.59% | -4.43% | -13.88% | +10.84% | -17.67% | -4.99% | +92.00% |
| 2018 | -27.57% | +1.57% | -32.85% | +31.95% | -18.99% | -14.62% | +21.35% | -9.42% | -5.95% | -4.57% | -36.42% | -7.00% | -73.48% |
| 2017 | +0.70% | +21.53% | -9.17% | +25.77% | +69.58% | +8.41% | +15.36% | +63.81% | -7.72% | +49.01% | +58.88% | +38.81% | +1,369.03% |
| 2016 | -14.38% | +18.50% | -4.84% | +7.57% | +18.48% | +26.78% | -7.11% | -7.87% | +5.94% | +14.93% | +6.32% | +29.18% | +123.75% |
| 2015 | -32.13% | +17.24% | -3.96% | -3.31% | -2.44% | +14.26% | +8.09% | -19.19% | +2.52% | +33.12% | +19.78% | +14.08% | +34.37% |
| 2014 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | -16.94% | -12.67% | +11.63% | -15.35% | -31.27% |
What drives the current read
MACD momentum
MACD is below its signal line, which supports a bearish turn.
50-day context
Price is above the 50-day average, so the model is more cautious about upside continuation.
RSI stretch
RSI is not in a rebound zone.
Trend filter
Price is still above the 200-day average.
How to read the score
The score is built from a momentum and mean-reversion model. A positive score suggests a bullish setup; a negative score suggests bearish continuation risk. Neutral means the signals are mixed or not strong enough.
| Score >= 3 | Bullish |
| -2 to +2 | Neutral |
| Score <= -3 | Bearish |
It is a statistical market read, not financial advice or a certainty about the next candle.
Current indicator interpretation
| Indicator | Current value | Interprétation |
|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | 78,186.79 | Price is above short-term trend. |
| SMA 50 | 72,512.72 | Medium-term reference level used with SMA 200 to detect trend structure. |
| SMA 200 | 70,425.71 | Price is above long-term trend. |
| RSI 14 | 55.54 | 50-70 supports constructive momentum; below 45 indicates weakness. |
| MACD | 1,148.51 | Compared against the signal line to judge whether momentum is improving or weakening. |
| MACD signal | 1,525.75 | 9-period EMA of MACD, used as the momentum trigger line. |